Over the last 15 years, India’s net tax revenue grew at a 9.2% CAGR, but the 2021–24 period saw a spike to 19.2%, driven by a booming equity market. Market-linked taxes rose to 5.2% of total revenue, up from 0.5–1.4% pre-2020. With markets weakening, this contribution may fall, risking FY25–26 revenue targets and potentially leading to cuts in capex—prompting an underweight stance on government-driven sectors over the next few quarters. This has several implications on how we think about risk and how we at Itus are positioned today.